Nonpartisan Analysis of US Senate GOP Mega-Bill Finds it Adds $3.2 Trillion to Deficits
By Jennifer Shutt, States Newsroom
U.S. Senate Republicans’ revised tax and spending cuts package will add $3.253 trillion to deficits during the next decade compared to current law, according to analysis the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Sunday.
The latest score came just hours before senators were set to officially begin floor debate on the sweeping package that will extend the 2017 GOP tax law, rework how much state governments have to contribute to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, overhaul several aspects of Medicaid and cut its spending, restructure higher education aid programs and much more.
Senators voted mostly along party lines late Saturday to proceed with the legislation, though leaders had to hold the vote open for more than three hours as they worked to get the votes needed.
The revised 940-page package still needs to undergo changes in the coming days, after the parliamentarian ruled Sunday morning that another six provisions must be revised to comply with the rules or be removed from the bill.
One Alaska Sweetener Knocked Out
GOP senators cannot include, or might need to restructure, language meant to bring Alaska Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski on board by enhancing the federal matching rate for Medicaid in two states with high poverty guideline levels: Alaska and Hawaii. The program for low-income people and some people with disabilities is run as a state-federal partnership.
Since Hawaii is represented in Congress by a Democratic delegation, the Republican benefit would largely have applied to Alaska’s two GOP senators.
Senate Republicans did receive some good news from the parliamentarian in her latest ruling, which cleared language that will steadily lower the maximum percent states can set for Medicaid provider tax rates from the current 6% to 3.5% in 2032.
The in-the-weeds policy has caused considerable frustration among GOP senators across the political spectrum, who argued a prior version would likely cause financial strain for rural hospitals by beginning the process one year sooner.
Planned Parenthood
The parliamentarian is still reviewing several other policy changes in the bill, including whether Republicans can prevent Medicaid funding from going to Planned Parenthood for one year, effectively blocking beneficiaries from receiving care there at all.
Federal law already bars federal taxpayer dollars from going toward abortions with limited exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the pregnant patient. So this change would prevent Medicaid patients, who may have few other options, from using Planned Parenthood for other types of health care, like annual physicals, contraception and cancer screenings.
A prior version of the bill blocked federal funding from going to Planned Parenthood for the next decade.
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, did not immediately respond to a request from States Newsroom about how the rulings might impact the bill going forward.
Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, wrote in a statement the latest rulings show "that Republican attempts to give away goodies that benefit certain states will not pass muster under Senate rules."
“Senate Democrats have also successfully challenged a giveaway to Big Pharma, as well as policies that make it harder for seniors and kids to get affordable health care through Medicaid," Wyden wrote. "Republicans wanted to bring back the health care tactics of yesteryear, like waiting periods, lock-outs and annual limits on care, but Democrats have wrestled these out of the bill. I am disappointed that the Republican rewrite of the provider tax changes will remain in the bill: this policy will force states into devastating cuts to health care that seniors, kids and Americans with disabilities depend on. We will continue to fight any attempt to sneak through harmful health care policies in this morally bankrupt legislation.”
Lengthy Debate, Amendment Fights Ahead
Republicans hope to pass the entire package before the Fourth of July, though they have several hurdles to jump over before they can meet that goal.
Senate floor debate can last up to 20 hours, which means it likely will last until early Monday morning. After that, senators will begin a marathon amendment voting session where members of each political party can propose changing or removing certain pieces of the legislation.
GOP leaders generally like to avoid public disputes within the party but the rules of reconciliation don’t really allow that and several Republican senators are expected to offer amendments.
There is no time limit or cap on the number of amendments that can be offered during vote-a-rama, so that can last hours or even days in theory.
Whenever Democrats and Republicans decide they’ve debated their last amendment, they’ll move on to voting to approve the Senate’s version of the “big, beautiful bill.” That could come Monday or Tuesday.
At least 50 Republicans need to vote to approve the measure, with Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. More than four GOP senators objecting to the overall bill means it cannot pass as it's written.
Thom Tillis, Rand Paul
Republican Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky voted against moving forward with debate so it’s likely they will vote against final passage as well. Two more senators deciding not to back the bill would halt its momentum, at least until GOP leaders could make changes to get their votes.
Tillis, who was attacked by Trump on social media over the vote, on Sunday announced he will not seek reelection.
Senate approval of the bill would send it back to the House for a final vote, though centrist and far-right members of the Republican Conference in that chamber have voiced concerns about changes made in the upper chamber.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, will need to keep nearly every one of the 220 House GOP lawmakers supportive if that chamber is to send the legislation to President Donald Trump for his signature before Friday.
Gut and bankrupt the government while carrying out war in the Middle East; the fundamental platform of the Republican Party for decades.
The Republican Party long ago lost the right to call themselves the party of fiscal responsibility. trump blew up the deficit in his first term, and he's set to do it again in his second term. All so that billionaires can get even more tax cuts, while millions of Americans lose their healthcare and rural hospitals close, and that's just scratching the surface of what could not incorrectly be called an evil bill.