Big Beautiful Bill Battle Bides
Analysis and lobbying efforts continue in the Senate
By Denise Rivette
There are a lot of conflicting views about how the Big Beautiful Bill will affect the national economy as well as state and individual budgets. There is a push by the Trump administration for quick passage by the Senate even as some Republican members of the House of Representatives are indicating that they wish they would have applied more scrutiny to its 1,038 pages and are relying on the Senate for a more intensive review and analysis before returning it to the House for a final vote (Fox News reporting and Facebook post).
It’s hard to know where to get information that is accurate, complete and unbiased. One source that our national legislators rely on is the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO is a non-partisan “federal agency within the legislative branch of the United States government that provides budget and economic information to Congress.” As recently as October 2024, Montana’s Senator Steve Daines relied on CBO analysis to prove that Biden/Harris policies would cost taxpayers billions in 2025.
Excerpt from October 8, 2024 press release from Senator Steve Daines’ office:
CBO Confirms Election Year Will Cost Taxpayers at Least $7 Billion in 2025
U.S. SENATE – U.S. Senator Steve Daines today called out the Biden-Harris administration for their new Medicare policy that will cost taxpayers billions in 2025. Recently, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis of the newly announced Biden-Harris subsidy for insurance companies intended to cover up the failures of the so-called “Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).” Based on CBO estimates, this election-year stunt to artificially lower the cost of seniors’ Part D premiums will cost taxpayers at least $7 billion in 2025, including $2 billion in additional interest on our already ballooning debt. CBO also notes the underlying partisan policy changes to seniors’ prescription drug coverage could cost up to $20 billion more in 2025 than previously assumed.
On May 20, the CBO presented a report to the ranking member of the House Committee on the Budget and the Democratic Leader. On May 22, the Big Beautiful Bill passed the House of Representatives and was forwarded to the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is trying to get the bill passed through his chamber and onto the president’s desk by July 4.
CBO REPORT EXCERPT:
Preliminary Analysis of the Distributional Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act prepared on May 20, 2025
The total effects reported in this analysis for the 2026–2034 period include the following:
An increase in the federal deficit of $3.8 trillion attributable to tax changes, including extending provisions of the 2017 tax act, which includes revenues and outlays for refundable credits.
$698 billion less in federal subsidies from changes to the Medicaid program.
$267 billion less in federal spending for SNAP.
$64 billion less in spending, on net, for all other purposes. That includes increases in outlays for defense, immigration enforcement, and homeland security. Those are offset by reductions in federal pensions, receipts from spectrum auctions, and changes in receipts and outlays associated with changes to emissions regulations.
$78 billion in additional state spending, on net, accounting for changes in state contributions to SNAP and Medicaid and for state tax and spending policies necessary to finance additional spending.
CBO estimates that the budgetary effects of the legislation would affect household resources via several channels, or categories:
Federal Taxes and Cash Transfers. Household resources would mainly be affected by changes to tax policy, especially extensions of provisions of the 2017 tax act and reductions in subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act.
Federal and State In-Kind Benefits. Household resources would primarily be affected by decreases in federal spending on benefits provided through Medicaid and SNAP. (The category also includes changes in state spending on those programs in response to this legislation.)
State Financing. Potential tax and spending changes by states to finance state contributions to in-kind benefits would affect household resources. An area of ongoing analysis involves CBO’s expectations of the states’ responses to changes in federal funding.
Other Spending and Revenue. All outlays other than transfers are allocated as if they were public goods.
Since the passage of the bill by the House, CBO has produced other reports for legislators on the impact of the Big Beautiful Bill including a spreadsheet with estimated budgetary effects dated June 4.
The White House put out a press release today highlighting administration officials’ efforts to push the bill forward with appearances on Sunday talk shows. Included in the highlights were:
Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought: “It is $1.4 trillion in reduced deficits and debt. That’s why this is such a paramount, fiscally responsible bill.” (Watch)
Director Vought: “The conservatives that have historically used the debt limit to sound the alarm have been pushing for the very reforms that are in this bill, so we believe that it’s important to do it with Republican votes to not have to deal with the Senate filibuster, and we want to get it taken care of so that Chuck Schumer doesn’t have this hanging over the administration and the administration’s agenda over the next several years.” (Watch)
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt: “This bill provides $1.6 trillion in mandatory savings — and when you combine that with the tariff revenue that President Trump’s America First trade agenda is bringing in ... with the Council of Economic Adviser’s projected growth of 3%, we’re going to cut the deficit by $8 trillion over the next ten years.” (Watch)
Speaker Mike Johnson: “What we’re trying to is help hardworking Americans who are trying to provide for their families and make ends meet … This is going to be jet fuel to the U.S. economy. All wages are going to rise. There’s going to be more jobs and economic opportunity for more people. We cannot wait to deliver that.” (Watch)
Director Hassett: “The Congressional Budget Office put out a ten-year estimate that says that the tariff revenue that’s already in place right now is going to raise $2.8 trillion over the next ten years. That’s more than their own static estimate for the cost of this entire bill, so that’s deficit reduction right there.” (Watch)